June 2, 2026 - According to the latest report from market research firm Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments are forecast to decline by 13.9% year-over-year in 2026, falling to approximately 1.08 billion units. This would mark the lowest annual shipment volume since 2013 and represents a steeper decline than the firm's previous forecast of 12.4% issued in February 2026.
The report suggests that the global smartphone industry is entering one of its most significant adjustment periods in recent years.
A key factor behind the market downturn is the ongoing shortage of memory supply. Production capacity has increasingly been redirected toward AI-focused memory products, including High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and server DRAM, reducing the availability of mobile memory components. As a result, LPDDR4 and LPDDR5 prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to be roughly double their levels from the fourth quarter of 2025.
Given the high capital requirements and long lead times associated with semiconductor manufacturing, memory supply constraints are expected to persist until the second half of 2027.
Among major smartphone vendors, Apple and Samsung are projected to be relatively resilient to the market slowdown. Counterpoint forecasts that iPhone shipments will remain largely stable throughout 2026 before growing by approximately 5% in 2027. Samsung's smartphone shipments were essentially flat in the first quarter of 2026 and are expected to decline by only 4% for the full year.
Huawei is forecast to be the only major Chinese smartphone brand to achieve shipment growth in 2026.
In contrast, lower-end smartphone manufacturers and emerging markets are expected to face the greatest challenges. LPDDR4 supply is projected to decline by more than 40% during 2026. Meanwhile, the global smartphone wholesale average selling price (ASP) increased by 14% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, and pricing pressure is expected to continue as existing inventories are gradually depleted.
Some industry observers believe that smartphone segments priced below US$150 may face increasing difficulty remaining viable, as rising component costs continue to squeeze profitability.
Looking further ahead, Counterpoint expects the smartphone market to rebound in 2028, supported by improving component supply, the release of pent-up consumer demand, reduced macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, and the start of a new device replacement cycle.
In addition, leading markets such as China, Japan, and South Korea are expected to begin commercial deployment of 6G networks toward the end of this decade. The maturation of AI-native devices is also anticipated to serve as a key catalyst for the next phase of smartphone market growth.
