The global TV ODM (contract manufacturing) market is feeling the heat heading into the end of 2025, and the pressure shows no signs of easing soon, according to the latest report from market research firm RUNTO.
In the third quarter of 2025, global TV ODM shipments reached about 31.38 million units, barely up 0.4% year-over-year - a sharp slowdown compared to the 1.6% growth seen in the first half of the year. Looking at the first three quarters combined, total shipments hit 84.51 million units, up a modest 1.1% from 2024. But things took a clear turn for the worse in August and September, with back-to-back year-over-year declines signaling that the market is now under significant strain.
Here are some scenes from modern TV production lines, where much of the global output is handled by contract manufacturers:
Several tough factors are weighing on the industry: ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising economic uncertainty, and new tariff policies from major markets like the United States have all disrupted TV supply chains. Plus, with 2025 being a relatively quiet year for major sports events, consumer demand for big-screen TVs has stayed soft, leaving brands and manufacturers feeling cautious.
The situation is especially pronounced in China - the world's second-largest TV market - where government subsidy programs have been inconsistent and insufficient since Q2. This led to a rare quarter-on-quarter drop in Q3 shipments, something not seen in at least the past five years.
These market challenges have gradually filtered upstream to the ODM segment. Since the second quarter, contract manufacturing orders have basically stopped growing. Fortunately, major global TV brands have kept their outsourcing strategy largely unchanged (still delegating over 55% of production), and raw material costs - especially display panels - haven't fluctuated wildly. As a result, the ODM market has managed to avoid a dramatic crash... at least for now.
These market trend charts illustrate the slowing momentum in TV-related segments in recent periods:
Looking ahead, the fourth quarter of 2025 looks challenging. Panel prices unexpectedly softened in October - often an early warning sign of weakening demand. RUNTO forecasts clear declines in both global and Chinese TV shipments in Q4, with China's numbers likely falling over 20% year-over-year, given the lackluster performance around National Day and so far during Double 11.
For the full year 2025, global TV ODM growth is now expected to come in below 1% - a steep drop from the 5.7% growth recorded in 2024.
The one bright spot on the horizon? 2026 and the FIFA World Cup. The 23rd edition will be co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico - a huge opportunity especially for North America, the world's largest TV market. Big sporting events like this have historically driven strong demand for larger and premium TVs.
Here are some glimpses of the excitement the 2026 World Cup is already generating:
In contrast, the outlook for China remains tough. The real estate market - which strongly influences home appliance purchases - is still struggling, and even if some form of government stimulus replaces the current subsidy programs, TV sales are likely to stay under pressure. RUNTO estimates that Chinese brand TV shipments could fall to around 31.42 million units in 2026 (down 6.2% from 2025) if some support continues, or drop even more sharply (over 10%) if stimulus ends completely.
Taking all factors into account, RUNTO projects global branded TV shipments will grow only about 1% in 2026, with the ODM market following a similar modest trajectory - unlikely to exceed 3% growth.
After years of solid expansion, it looks like the TV manufacturing world is entering a much more cautious chapter.
