San Jose, January 13, 2026
Counterpoint Research dropped its preliminary numbers for 2025 global smartphone shipments yesterday (January 12), and it's a pretty modest story overall: the market grew only 2% year-over-year. That's the second year in a row of growth, but way slower than the bigger bounces we saw coming out of the post-COVID slump.
The big headline is that Apple finally overtook Samsung to become the world's #1 smartphone vendor by shipments. Apple grabbed a 20% market share with 10% YoY growth – the strongest among the top five brands. Senior analyst Varun Mishra credited this to solid demand in emerging markets (like India and Southeast Asia), good traction in mid-tier regions, and a strong product lineup. The iPhone 17 series launched well and pulled a lot of sales in Q4, while the iPhone 16 kept performing nicely in places like Japan and India. Plus, a bunch of people who held off during COVID finally upgraded.
Samsung came in second with 19% share and modest growth (around 5% YoY, per some breakdowns). Their Galaxy A series did steady work in the budget/mid-range, and the premium Galaxy S/Z lines held their own.
Xiaomi held third place at 13%, thanks to reliable demand in price-sensitive emerging markets where they dominate the value segment.
Other notes from the report:
- Premiumization helped – more people financing high-end phones, better marketing, and wider 5G adoption in developing regions.
- Early in 2025, brands front-loaded shipments to dodge potential tariffs, but that effect faded by mid-year and didn't really mess with the second half.
- Q4 shipments were up just 1% YoY, partly because of built-up inventory earlier.
Looking ahead, things don't look as bright. Research director Tarun Pathak warned that 2026 could see the market soften or even dip. The main issue? Chipmakers (especially for DRAM and NAND flash) are prioritizing AI data centers and cloud infrastructure over consumer phones. That means shortages for smartphone-grade memory, plus higher component costs trickling down. Counterpoint already revised its 2026 shipment forecast downward by 3%, and we've seen price hikes starting to pop up (as we talked about in recent stories on phones and laptops getting more expensive).
Apple and Samsung should weather it better thanks to stronger supply chains and premium positioning, but lower-end Chinese brands might feel more pain.
Bottom line: 2025 was a stable-but-not-exciting year for smartphones, with Apple claiming the crown after years of Samsung dominance. But with memory costs squeezing everything and AI sucking up capacity, don't expect big growth in 2026 – brace for higher prices and maybe slower sales. If you're eyeing a new phone, the next few months might still be relatively "good" timing before things tighten more.
